Super Bowl indicator

The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978[1] when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).

As of January 2022, the predictor had been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate.[2] Without retrospective predictions, i.e. after its invention in 1978, it had been correct in 29 out of 43 games, a success rate of 67%.

Data

Year Team League Conference Market Correct
2000 Rams NFL NFC Decrease No
2001 Ravens exp AFC Decrease Yes
2002 Patriots AFL AFC Decrease Yes
2003 Buccaneers exp NFC Increase Yes
2004 Patriots AFL AFC Increase No
2005 Patriots AFL AFC Decrease Yes
2006 Steelers NFL AFC Increase No
2007 Colts NFL AFC Increase No
2008 Giants NFL NFC Decrease No
2009 Steelers NFL AFC Increase No
2010 Saints NFL NFC Increase Yes
2011 Packers NFL NFC Increase Yes
2012 Giants NFL NFC Increase Yes
2013 Ravens exp AFC Increase No
2014 Seahawks exp NFC Increase Yes
2015 Patriots exp AFC Decrease Yes
2016 Broncos exp AFC Increase No
2017 Patriots exp AFC Increase No
2018 Eagles exp NFC Decrease No
2019 Patriots exp AFC Increase No
2020 Chiefs exp AFC Increase No
2021 Buccaneers exp NFC Increase Yes
2022 Rams exp NFC Decrease No
2023 Chiefs exp AFC Increase No
2024 Chiefs exp AFC

See also

References

  1. ^ "Everything you want to know about the Super Bowl Indicator". 13 February 2022.
  2. ^ "Super Bowl Indicator Says Market Should Rise in 2022 If Rams Win". Forbes. 31 January 2022.


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