The 2024 Arizona Senate election was held on November 5, 2024. Voters elected members of the Arizona Senate in all 30 of the state's legislative districts to serve a two-year term. Primary elections were held on July 30, 2024.[1]
Prior to the elections, the Republican Party held a narrow majority over the Democratic Party, controlling 16 seats to their 14 seats.
Background
Partisan Background
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won 15 of Arizona's 30 legislative districts. Senate District 13, centered around the city of Chandler, which Biden won by 3% in 2020, was the only district Biden won in 2020 which was currently held by a Republican going into the 2024 Arizona Senate election.
Biden
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
Trump
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
Background
Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, Arizona was considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state and is seen as a purple state. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[2] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[3]
The Arizona Democratic Party has not won outright control of either state legislative chamber since the 1990s. The last time the party won control of both chambers was in the 1960s.[4] Since then, the state's trend towards Democrats and a consolidated effort on flipping control of the legislature has made this election seen as a tossup with both parties having an equal chance to win control of one or both chambers.
Campaign
This election is expected to be one of the most competitive state legislative races in the 2024 election cycle. Most ratings suggest the race to be a toss-up or having Democrats as the slight favorite to win the chamber. Additionally, the state Democratic Party's fundraising advantage is also expected to play a major role in which party wins control of the chamber.[4] If Democrats won both chambers, it would have been the first time that Democrats had a trifecta in the state since 1966.[5]
Incumbent Senator Ken Bennett faced a strong primary challenge after voting multiple times against conservative bills and stymieing Republican legislation.[19][20][21] The first challenger was Steve Zipperman, a previous primary opponent from 2022, and the second was Mark Finchem, Republican nominee for Secretary of Statetwo years prior. Despite the strong possibility of splitting the vote, both Finchem and Zipperman stayed in the race, with Finchem ultimately prevailing by 15.07% over Bennett.[22] This defeat represented the worst primary performance of any incumbent legislator this cycle in either chamber from either party.
State representativeMelody Hernandez was the only candidate to file for the Democratic primary, but withdrew after her nominating petitions were challenged for having an insufficient number of valid signatures.[24] She was replaced by former Tempe City Councilmember Lauren Kuby on the ballot, who was selected by local precinct committee members in a 39-28 vote over fellow state representative Deborah Nardozzi.[25][26]