2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico
	November 5, 2024
Turnout	65.3%
	Heinrich: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Domenici: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 50% No votes
U.S. senator before election; Martin Heinrich; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Martin Heinrich; Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici.^[1] Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed.^[2] Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Martin Heinrich, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D)	$9,067,125	$5,341,198	$4,380,901
Source: Federal Election Commission^[3]

Results

Democratic primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich (incumbent)	122,961	100.0%
Total votes			122,961	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Nella Domenici, former CFO of Bridgewater Associates and daughter of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici^[5]

Disqualified

Manuel Gonzales III, former Democratic Bernalillo County Sheriff (2014–2022) and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2021^[6]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Nella Domenici (R)	$1,525,766	$464,576	$1,061,190
Source: Federal Election Commission^[3]

Results

Republican primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Nella Domenici	79,809	100.0%
Total votes			79,809	100.0%

Independents and third-party candidates

Candidates

Filed paperwork

Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman^[7]
Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman^[8]
Jerry Rose (Independent)^[9]
Tom Wakely (Green)^[10]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[11]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections^[12]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[13]	Safe D	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[14]	Likely D	October 30, 2024
Elections Daily^[15]	Safe D	May 4, 2023
CNalysis^[16]	Solid D	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics^[17]	Lean D	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket^[18]	Likely D	October 30, 2024
538^[19]	Solid D	October 23, 2024

Endorsements

Martin Heinrich (D)

Organizations

Labor unions

AFSCME Council 18^[31]

Nella Domenici (R)

Organizations

National Republican Senatorial Committee^[32]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D)	$12,502,263	$10,330,618	$2,826,618
Nella Domenici (R)	$4,777,524^[a]	$4,377,754	$399,769
Source: Federal Election Commission^[3]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Martin Heinrich (D)	Nella Domenici (R)	Undecided ^[b]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight^[33]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.4%	38.9%	12.7%	Heinrich +9.5
RCP^[34]	June 13 – October 26, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.7%	39.3%	12.0%	Heinrich +9.4
270ToWin^[35]	October 22 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	50.5%	44.5%	5.0%	Heinrich +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ^[36]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	50.8%	43.1%	6.1%	Heinrich +7.7%
Average			49.6%	41.5%	8.9%	Heinrich +8.1%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Nella Domenici (R)	Other	Undecided
Victory Insights (R)^[37]	November 1–3, 2024	600 (LV)	–	50%	48%	–	1%
Research & Polling Inc.^[38]^[A]	October 10–18, 2024	1,024 (LV)	± 3.1%	51%	40%	1%^[d]	7%
SurveyUSA^[39]^[B]	September 12–18, 2024	619 (LV)	± 5.4%	47%	34%	–	19%
Research & Polling Inc.^[40]^[A]	September 6–13, 2024	532 (LV)	± 4.2%	50%	38%	4%^[e]	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies^[41]^[C]	September 6–9, 2024	521 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	37%	6%^[f]	11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies^[42]^[C]	August 25–28, 2024	488 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	33%	4%^[g]	19%
Emerson College^[43]^[D]	August 20–22, 2024	965 (RV)	± 3.1%	49%	37%	4%^[h]	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies^[44]^[C]	August 12–15, 2024	453 (LV)	± 4.1%	42%	36%	7%^[i]	15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies^[45]^[C]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	493 (LV)	± 4.1%	40%	34%	4%^[j]	21%
1892 Polling (R)^[46]^[E]	June 19–24, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	42%	–	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[47]^[F]	June 13–14, 2024	555 (V)	± 4.2%	47%	40%	–	13%
Red Oak Strategies (R)^[48]^[E]	May 7–19, 2024	1,800 (LV)	± 2.3%	41%	38%	–	21%
1892 Polling (R)^[46]^[E]	March 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	36%	–	–

Results

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico^[49]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich (incumbent)	497,333	55.06%	+0.97%
	Republican	Nella Domenici	405,978	44.94%	+14.41%
Total votes			903,311	100.0%
Turnout				65.33%	+10.33
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Colfax (largest municipality: Raton)
Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg)
Luna (largest municipality: Deming)
Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)

By congressional district

Heinrich won all three congressional districts.^[50]

District	Heinrich	Domenici	Representative
1st	57.1%	42.9%	Melanie Stansbury
2nd	52.0%	48.0%	Gabe Vasquez
3rd	55.4%	44.6%	Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

^ $1,510,000 of this total was self-funded by Domenici
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ "Neither" with 1%
^ "Neither" with 4%
^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; and "Other" with 2%
^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 2%
^ "Someone else" with 4%
^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
^ "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by The Albuquerque Journal
^ Poll sponsored by KOB
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
^ ^a ^b ^c Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Domenici
^ Poll sponsored by New Mexico Political Report

References

^ ^a ^b Boetel, Ryan (May 4, 2023). "Heinrich announces re-election campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
^ ^a ^b ^c "2024 Election United States Senate - New Mexico". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
^ ^a ^b "2024 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
^ Mutnick, Ally (January 16, 2023). "Daughter of former GOP senator launches Senate run in New Mexico". Politico. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
^ Cook, Cathy (February 13, 2024). "Former Bernalillo County sheriff disqualified from Senate race". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
^ "CHICK, CAMERON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
^ "LUNA, BENJAMIN RALPH #1728 - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
^ "ROSE, JERRY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
^ "WAKELY, THOMAS JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on October 26, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
^ "314 Action Fund Endorses New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich for re-election". 314 Action.
^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
^ "Martin Heinrich". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
^ "AFSCME Council 18 Endorsements - New Mexico". AFSCME Council 18. May 20, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
^ Ross, Alex (January 21, 2024). "Domenici nets signatures needed for primary ballot". Roswell Daily Record. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
^ FiveThirtyEight
^ RCP
^ 270ToWin
^ TheHill/DDHQ
^ Victory Insights (R)
^ Research & Polling Inc.
^ SurveyUSA
^ Research & Polling Inc.
^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
^ Emerson College
^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
^ ^a ^b 1892 Polling (R)
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Red Oak Strategies (R)
^ "2024 General Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico. November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
^ "2024 U.S. Senate Election in New Mexico by Congressional District".

External links

Official campaign websites

[33] $1,510,000 of this total was self-funded by Domenici

[34] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[Key-39] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[43] "Neither" with 1%

[47] "Neither" with 4%

[50] "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; and "Other" with 2%

[52] "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 2%

[55] "Someone else" with 4%

[57] "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 5%; "Other" with 2%

[59] "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%

[ABQ-42] Poll sponsored by The Albuquerque Journal

[KOB-45] Poll sponsored by KOB

[telegraph-49] Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph

[hill-54] Poll sponsored by The Hill

[NRSC-61] Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Domenici

[63] Poll sponsored by New Mexico Political Report

[Heinrich_campaign-1] Boetel, Ryan (May 4, 2023). "Heinrich announces re-election campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 4, 2023.

[2] "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.

[FEC-3] "2024 Election United States Senate - New Mexico". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 19, 2024.

[NM_Primary-4] "2024 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.

[5] Mutnick, Ally (January 16, 2023). "Daughter of former GOP senator launches Senate run in New Mexico". Politico. Retrieved January 17, 2024.

[6] Cook, Cathy (February 13, 2024). "Former Bernalillo County sheriff disqualified from Senate race". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 14, 2024.

[7] "CHICK, CAMERON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.

[8] "LUNA, BENJAMIN RALPH #1728 - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.

[9] "ROSE, JERRY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.

[10] "WAKELY, THOMAS JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.

[11] "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.

[Inside_Elections-12] "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-13] "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.

[14] "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.

[15] "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.

[16] "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.

[17] "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.

[18] "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

[19] "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on October 26, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

[20] "314 Action Fund Endorses New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich for re-election". 314 Action.

[eculav-21] "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.

[femmajorityendorse-22] "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.

[HSLF-23] "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.

[jdjoshendorse-24] "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.

[JACPA-25] "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.

[26] "Martin Heinrich". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.

[27] "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.

[28] Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.

[PPAF-29] "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.

[pop-30] "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.

[31] "AFSCME Council 18 Endorsements - New Mexico". AFSCME Council 18. May 20, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2024.

[32] Ross, Alex (January 21, 2024). "Domenici nets signatures needed for primary ballot". Roswell Daily Record. Retrieved January 26, 2024.

[35] FiveThirtyEight

[36] RCP

[37] 270ToWin

[38] TheHill/DDHQ

[40] Victory Insights (R)

[41] Research & Polling Inc.

[44] SurveyUSA

[46] Research & Polling Inc.

[48] Redfield & Wilton Strategies

[51] Redfield & Wilton Strategies

[53] Emerson College

[56] Redfield & Wilton Strategies

[58] Redfield & Wilton Strategies

[1892_Polling_R-60] 1892 Polling (R)

[62] Public Policy Polling (D)

[64] Red Oak Strategies (R)

[65] "2024 General Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico. November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.

[66] "2024 U.S. Senate Election in New Mexico by Congressional District".

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